By Arosh John | Founder – John Real Estate (MahaRERA Reg. No. A51700001835) | Editor-in-Chief – Thane Real Estate News (TREN)
Thane–MMR | November 2025
A City Rebuilding Itself – And Its Future
Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) is in the middle of one of the most ambitious infrastructure cycles anywhere in the world. Metro viaducts, sea links, coastal roads, new corridors, airports and planned townships are being stitched into a single economic vision: to make MMR a US$1.2–1.5 trillion economy by 2047, up from roughly US$140 billion today (early-2020s estimates).
As a real estate consultant and observer of this market, I am structurally bullish on Mumbai–MMR. A region of this scale cannot grow without heavy investment in mobility, logistics and urban infrastructure.
At the same time, long-term investors, homebuyers and policy-makers need to understand the less visible structural shifts and risks beneath the boom. The objective of this article is not to criticise development, but to highlight what must work better if MMR’s trillion-dollar ambition is to translate into a more liveable, investible city for everyone.
Below are five key structural truths shaping Mumbai’s transformation – each carrying both risk and opportunity.
1 | Tokyo-Scale Economic Ambition – With Mega-City Complexity
Recent versions of the Economic Master Plan for MMR (prepared for the Government of Maharashtra and MMRDA in collaboration with national and international agencies) outline a clear 2047 vision:
- Expand regional GDP to around US$1.2–1.5 trillion by 2047,
- Raise per-capita income to roughly US$38,000,
- Accommodate a population of about 3.6–3.8 crore residents by 2047, up from an estimated 2.58 crore (25.8 million) in 2023.
To support this, more than ₹4 lakh crore of infrastructure investment is in various stages of planning and execution across:
- A metro network targeted at around 450 km by FY 2030,
- Sea links and coastal roads,
- Multi-modal corridors and logistics nodes,
- Airports, ports, and planned new cities.
In terms of scale and ambition, MMR is clearly positioning itself in the same league as large global metro regions like Tokyo. The complexity, however, is equally significant – spanning governance, environmental limits, social housing, transport integration and financing discipline.
What this means for buyers and investors
- Over the next two decades, infrastructure-linked corridors are likely to see outsized value creation.
- Understanding how masterplan intentions translate into phasing on the ground will be critical – not every announced project delivers the same impact or timeline.
2 | Record Investment in Mass Transit – Yet Public Transport Share Has Declined
On the surface, Mumbai looks like a mass-transit success story in the making: aggressive metro expansion, integration with suburban rail and talk of transit-oriented development.
Data from the Comprehensive Transport Study / Comprehensive Mobility Plan (CTS/CMP) for Greater Mumbai, however, shows a more nuanced picture for the period 2005–2014:
- In 2005, public transport (suburban rail, BEST buses, etc.) accounted for about 83% of all motorised trips.
- By around 2014, this share had dropped to approximately 61–62%.
During the same decade, private vehicle ownership in the wider MMR rose sharply. Subsequent transport and traffic statistics for Mumbai city indicate that by 2023–24, the city had already crossed roughly 46–48 lakh registered vehicles, giving it one of the highest vehicle densities per kilometre of road in India.
In simple terms, we are investing more in public transport, but a growing number of people who can afford private mobility are choosing two-wheelers and cars.
This is not a failure of the idea of mass transit. It is a signal that service quality, reliability, integration and last-mile experience have to improve at the same pace as physical expansion.
Opportunity going forward
- Corridors where metro, suburban rail and bus systems are well-integrated and supported by walkable last miles are likely to become preferred residential and office micro-markets.
- For policy-makers, reversing the decline in public transport share is not just a mobility goal; it is a land value and productivity goal.
3 | The “Last Mile” Remains the Longest Mile for Most Mumbaikars
For the 60–70% of residents who still rely on public transport in some form, the weakest link is often not the main trunk line, but the stretch between station and destination.
Areas like Bandra Kurla Complex (BKC) make this clear:
- They are strategically located near two major suburban rail stations (Bandra and Kurla).
- Yet, daily commuters often face congested access roads, incomplete or encroached footpaths, limited shade, poor crossing infrastructure and a general lack of pedestrian priority.
In recent years, agencies have begun to introduce measures such as feeder buses, traffic-decongestion plans and revised junction management around BKC. However, for many office-goers today, the everyday experience still reflects the challenges above more than the long-term vision.
Accident statistics over recent years show that pedestrians consistently form a large proportion of road-crash fatalities in Mumbai. While exact percentages vary by year and source, the trend is clear: those who walk are among the most vulnerable users of the city’s transport system.
This is not unique to BKC; it is a pattern across multiple nodes. Streets are designed primarily for vehicles, while walkability, cycling, universal access and micro-mobility are treated as secondary.
What this means on the ground
- For end-users, commute quality is determined less by the metro map and more by how safe and convenient it is to walk the last 500–800 metres.
- For investors, micro-markets that combine strong regional connectivity with well-designed, people-friendly last-mile infrastructure may progressively command a premium, especially for Grade A offices and mid-to-premium residential projects.
There is a clear opportunity for local bodies and planning agencies to treat footpaths, crossings, lighting and shade as core infrastructure, not cosmetic add-ons.
4 | Ambitious Sustainability Targets – And Tough Environmental Trade-Offs
MMR’s official roadmap sets ambitious sustainability goals, including:
- Moving towards high levels of electrified public transport by 2030,
- Targeting a significant share of renewable energy usage by 2030,
- Achieving roughly 30–40% water recycling in the medium term,
as stepping stones towards a broader net-zero 2047 vision.
Yet some of the most prominent projects currently shaping Mumbai underscore the complexity of delivering growth and sustainability together:
- The Mumbai Coastal Road involves significant reclamation from the Arabian Sea, with official estimates for reclaimed area crossing 100 hectares. Project costs have escalated over time and are commonly reported in the ₹12,000–22,000 crore range, depending on phase and extensions. Environmental assessments and independent studies have repeatedly flagged potential long-term impacts on coastal ecology, fisheries and flood behaviour.
- The Aarey metro car shed project, based on permissions granted in 2019 and subsequent disclosures in court, allowed the cutting of over 2,300 trees across the depot and ramp areas in one of Mumbai’s key green buffers. Compensatory afforestation and survival rates of planted saplings remain closely scrutinised by citizens and environmental groups.
- The Mumbai Trans-Harbour Link (MTHL), while critical for regional connectivity, has drawn attention to possible impacts on mudflats and intertidal habitats that support migratory flamingos and other bird species in and around the Sewri–Thane Creek region.
None of this argues against infrastructure. Instead, it highlights that project design, location choices, mitigation measures and monitoring frameworks must be strengthened if MMR’s green targets are to be credible.
Where the opportunity lies
- Projects that genuinely integrate low-carbon design, nature-based solutions and robust mitigation can attract institutional capital with ESG mandates and gain long-term policy support.
- For buyers and investors, neighbourhoods that retain strong natural assets — lakes, mangroves, tree cover, open spaces — alongside infrastructure access are likely to be more resilient and desirable over time.
5 | Iconic Projects vs Everyday Infrastructure – The Equity Gap
Perhaps the most important structural issue is who benefits, and how evenly.
High-visibility assets such as sea links, coastal roads and signature corridors are often built with public funds, but their direct, day-to-day utility tends to favour car-owning commuters on specific routes.
At the same time, large parts of the city still struggle with:
- Continuous, well-maintained footpaths and street lighting,
- Adequate stormwater drainage and solid-waste systems,
- Upgraded in-situ rehabilitation and affordable rental housing,
- Safer, more accessible suburban rail stations and approaches.
Mumbai’s suburban rail network, still the backbone of everyday commuting, continues to see very high casualty figures. According to Government Railway Police data reported in early 2025, around 2,468 people died on Mumbai’s suburban railway tracks in 2024, with a similar number of injuries. A significant portion of these cases is linked to falls from overcrowded trains and unsafe track crossings.
For many residents, the daily lived reality is risk on legacy systems, even as new, world-class infrastructure comes up elsewhere.
The Economic Master Plan also speaks of creating multiple new growth centres, business districts and tourism hubs. This is essential for jobs and revenue. The key question is whether neighbourhood-scale infrastructure and social services will keep pace so that the benefits of growth are more widely distributed.
Implications for the market
- Micro-markets that combine iconic connectivity (metro, expressways, sea links) with basic everyday reliability (good internal roads, civic services, safety, social infrastructure) are most likely to emerge as long-term, end-user driven markets.
- For policy-makers, shifting a portion of capital and attention from only high-visibility projects to systematic upgrading of local infrastructure can improve both liveability and the economic return on mega-projects.
Conclusion: Building a Trillion-Dollar Region That Works on the Ground
Mumbai–MMR is at a pivotal moment. The scale of investment underway is both necessary and overdue for a region of this economic importance.
The five structural shifts outlined above are not reasons to doubt MMR’s future. They are early-warning signals that, if taken seriously, can help the region transition from being simply a large metro to becoming a genuinely high-performing, inclusive and investible urban ecosystem.
For homebuyers, investors and developers, the takeaway is clear:
- Look beyond project brochures and ask how the larger system around that project will function in 10–20 years.
- Track not just what is being built, but how it is being integrated with transport, environment and everyday urban services.
For policy-makers and agencies, the trillion-dollar question is no longer whether MMR will grow – that is almost a given. The question is how evenly and sustainably that growth will be experienced across its people, neighbourhoods and markets.
About the Author
Arosh John is the Founder of John Real Estate (MahaRERA Reg. No. A51700001835) and Editor-in-Chief of Thane Real Estate News (TREN) — a digital platform focused on factual, insight-led coverage of Mumbai Metropolitan Region’s evolving property landscape.
With over a decade of on-ground experience across Thane and Mumbai’s residential, villa, resale and NRI segments, Arosh specialises in infrastructure-led real estate advisory — mapping how metro corridors, highways, sea links, tunnels and new economic clusters translate into long-term value for homebuyers and investors.
His work sits at the intersection of market intelligence, regulatory compliance and urban planning. Through John Real Estate and TREN, he aims to simplify complex policies, infrastructure plans and project risks into clear, actionable guidance for end-users, NRIs, family offices and developers looking at Thane–MMR with a long-term lens.
Disclaimer
This article is based on information available from government documents, official plans, mobility studies, court records, and publicly reported data believed to be reliable as of the date of publication. Views and interpretations expressed are personal opinions of the author in his professional capacity and do not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. Readers are advised to independently verify information and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or investment decisions.
